Coventry v Fylde – lies, damned lies….
I thought it might be interesting to look at some comparisons between Coventry and Fylde based on the games they’ve played so far this season to see what conclusions, if any, can be drawn from the current form of both teams.
I’m all too aware that statistics can be manipulated to suit a particular purpose. I apologise in advance if I have unwittingly made incorrect judgements based on the data used. All stats are for the 2015/16 season.
Home/away league tables
Coventry 6th in the league based on home games only.
Fylde 15th in the league based on away games only.
Verdict: Coventry have the upper hand here
Coventry: 21(11 home,10 away, 14 first half, 7 second half)
Fylde: 22 (17 home, 5 away, 9 first half, 13 second half)
Although both teams have scored near enough the same number of tries, Fylde have scored more than 3/4 of theirs at home, suggesting perhaps they aren’t quite the attacking force away from The Woodlands. Nearly two thirds of their tries are scored in the second half, while Coventry have scored twice as many in the first half…does this suggest Fylde aren’t going to tire as much in the latter stages as one might expect..? Fylde have scored a third of their tries in the final 20 minutes whilst Coventry have scored over a third of theirs in the first 20 minutes).
Verdict: Cov more of a potent threat at home than Fylde are away from home…
Coventry: 16 (7 home, 9 away, 9 first half, 7 second half).
Fylde: 23 (11 home, 12 away,11 first half, 12 second half).
If Fylde do tend to come on strong in the second half, Coventry’s stats suggest the might be well-placed to repel the onslaught, conceding only 7 tries at home in their three games in total for both halves).
Tries by position – for
Coventry: backs 10, forwards 11 (front row 7).
Fylde: backs 18, forwards 4 (wings 7).
Verdict: if the Fylde backs are given a chance to run with the ball, Coventry could be in serious trouble. If Cov’s forwards dominate, Fylde will have problems.
Tries by position – against
Coventry: 16 – 7 in the backs, 7 in the forwards and 2 penalty tries.
Fylde: 23 – 10 in the backs, 12 in the forwards and 1 penalty try.
Verdict: Coventry’s defence on paper is better than Fylde’s. Again, much will depend on how much the forwards can dominate. If they can maul effectively, a Cov win is more likely
Points given up
Fylde have conceded 4 tries away from home once so far this season. Coventry have yet to concede 4 at home. No real advantage to either side here, perhaps Coventry slightly more likely to get the additional bonus point than Fylde…?
Verdict: No bonus point for 4 tries for either team.
Coventry: 10 yellows (worst in the league) – average of 1.67 a game (7 first half, 3 second half, 3 home, 7 away).
Fylde: 4 yellows, 2 reds – average of 0.67 a game (2 first half, 2 second half, 1 home, 1 away).
Fylde have only had one yellow away from home. Coventry have had 3, but their discipline is poor and could prove costly in a tight game. A definite concern.
Verdict: Coventry in danger of losing at least on player for 10 minutes.
Half time win table
Coventry have led at half time on 4 of their 6 games, going on to win all of them, the best conversion rate in the league.
Fylde have led once at half time, but went on to lose the game. However, having been in a losing position at half time in 5 games, they went on to win 2 of them. Coventry have lost both the games in which they were trailing at the half way mark. Going into half-time with a decent lead means Cov would be strong favourites to win the game.
Verdict: Coventry likely to be in front at half time.
Kicking strike rate
Matt Jones – Coventry: 64.71% (11/19C, 11/15P).
Chris Johnson – Fylde: 71.88% (15/2C, 8/10P).
Matt’s had an inconsistent time with the boot this season; a capable kicker but less reliable than he should be at this level. Chris Johnson’s success rate is good and clearly Cov can’t afford to give him too many opportunities to kick for goal. By comparison, last season Cliffie Hodgson averaged 78.07, but that was still less than Johnson (79.49%).
Verdict: Fylde to win the battle of the kickers .
Leading points scorers
Coventry: Matt Jones with 55 points (11C, 11P).
Fylde: Chris Johnson with 59 points (1T, 15C, 8P).
Verdict: Fylde to have the upper hand.
Leading try scorer
Coventry: Matt Price with 4.
Fylde : Ollie Brennand with 4.
Verdict: odds on Brennand to add to his total given his success rate in Coventry fixtures in the past.
Coventry average 1,160 at home games, the highest in the league.
Verdict: a bigger than average crowd will get behind a team growing in confidence all the time.
I’m sure the coaches of both teams will have far more detailed stats, but it’s a bit like Championship Manager – how do you set up your team to play to its strengths whilst also being aware of those of the opposition.